The Lux Prediction Markets evaluation is a 1-Step Challenge specifically engineered to identify and back elite forecasting talent. By demonstrating professional risk management and hitting our performance benchmarks, you can secure a Funded Account without risking your own capital. 

Evaluation Parameters & Metrics 

(All metrics scale proportionally based on your chosen account currency: GBP, USD, or EUR) 

In-Depth Evaluation Rules 

1. The Profit Target (10%) 

Your objective during the evaluation phase is to grow your account balance by 10% through fully closed positions. Floating or unrealized profits from open trades will not count toward this milestone. 

For a standard 10,000 account, your target is to reach a realized profit of 1,000. 

There is no time pressure to rush; you can trade at your own pace and wait for the perfect macroeconomic, political, or global events to build your track record. 

2. Maximum Loss Drawdown (4%) 

To ensure strict capital preservation, your account equity must never drop by 4% or more from its initial starting balance. 

For a standard 10,000 account, the maximum allowed loss is 400 (meaning your account equity must never drop to or below 9,600). 

This rule applies identically to both the Evaluation Phase and the Funded Stage. Exceeding this limit at any point, calculated in real-time based on open positions, will result in an automated breach of the account. 

3. Institutional Risk Capping (Max Risk & Max Earn) 

To promote professional portfolio management and protect the firm against high-risk market anomalies, the following boundaries are hardcoded into the platform across 5 Major Topic Categories:

The 5 Major Topic Categories:

Politics & Geopolitics (includes: Politics, Iran, Geopolitics, Elections)

Sports & Gaming (includes: Sports, Esports)

Crypto & Markets (includes: Crypto, Finance, Tech, Economy)

Culture

Weather

Category Risk & Earn Limits:

Max Exposure / Risk Per Big Topic (1%):

You cannot risk or allocate more than 1% of your initial account size across all active trades combined within a single Big Topic category at any given time.

Example: For a $10,000 account, your total active risk in Category 3 (Crypto & Markets) cannot exceed $100. If you have an active $100 trade in Crypto, you cannot open another trade in Tech, Finance, or Economy until that trade closes.

Max Earn Per Trade (2x Risk / Up to 2%):

The maximum eligible profit you can secure from any trade is capped at double (2x) the risk allocated to that specific trade, up to a maximum of 2% of your initial account size. Any excess profit generated above this 2x multiplier will be automatically filtered out and will not count toward your phase progression.

Example: For a $10,000 account, if you risk 0.5% ($50) on a position, your Maximum Earn for that trade is 1% ($100). If you risk the maximum 1% ($100), your Maximum Earn is capped at 2% ($200).

To maintain a fair, transparent, and compliant environment for all participants, Lux Prediction Markets enforces strict operational guidelines. Our platform is built for independent thinkers and macro forecasters; manipulation, cheating, or external management will result in immediate disqualification.

1. Account Management & Individual Access Policy

Individual Access Only: Account management, account passing, or sharing credentials with third parties is strictly prohibited. Every Lux account must be accessed and traded exclusively by the individual owner registered on the KYC documentation.

Prohibition of Copy Trading & Account Mirroring: Copy trading in any form—whether manually, via third-party software, or by mimicking another trader’s positions across single or multiple accounts—is strictly prohibited. Every trade must reflect the trader’s own independent analysis and execution. Any account detected copying or mirroring predictions will be immediately terminated.

Multi-Account Copy Trading Prohibited: For traders operating multiple accounts, duplicating or spreading the exact same active predictions across different accounts is strictly forbidden. Each account must be traded independently, and copying open positions across your multiple accounts is a direct violation of our fair play policy.

2. Strict Anti-Hedging Policy

Hedging is fundamentally banned on the Lux Prediction Markets platform. This infrastructure is designed to reward directional market evaluation, not statistical arbitrage or system exploitation.

Internal Hedging: You are not allowed to purchase opposing YES and NO contracts on the exact same event market within a single account to lock in riskless movements.

Cross-Account Hedging: Utilizing multiple Lux accounts (or coordinating with other users) to buy opposite outcomes on the same event market is strictly forbidden. Any detected hedging patterns will result in immediate account suspension and forfeiture of fees.

One Active Position Per Prediction Question: Traders are permitted to have only one active, open position per specific prediction question at any given time. Hedging different outcomes or opening duplicate positions within the same prediction question is strictly prohibited while a trade is ongoing. Once your position on a prediction question is closed and settled, you are free to place a new prediction on that same prediction question.

3. Data Integrity, Automation & Fair Play

Automated Trading, Scripts, Bots & HFT Ban: The use of automated trading algorithms, external scripts, execution bots, browser extensions, or High-Frequency Trading (HFT) strategies is strictly forbidden. All predictions must be placed manually through the standard user interface. Accounts detected using automated tools or HFT execution will face immediate disqualification and account cancellation.

Exploitation of Latency: Traders are strictly prohibited from exploiting wrong, delayed, or outdated contract prices caused by data latency, API delays, or software glitches (this applies to both pre-event and live real-time trading).

Reporting Obligation: If you notice an obvious mispricing, a frozen contract market, or an error in live data feeds, you must report it to our team immediately. Exploiting these anomalies to gain an unfair advantage is classified as cheating.

Post-Trade Corrections: Lux reserves the right to correct, void, or cancel any trades affected by incorrect or outdated pricing, even days after the event has settled. Account balances, equity logs and targets will be adjusted retroactively if latency exploitation is detected.

Consequences: Repeated attempts to trade on delayed data, utilize unauthorized tools, or exploit system errors will lead to permanent disqualification without a refund.

4. Permitted Entry Price Range ($0.10 – $0.90)

To maintain market integrity, prevent system exploitation, and promote realistic directional forecasting, Lux Prediction Markets enforces an entry price boundary.

Allowed Odds Limits: Position entries are strictly permitted only when the contract price is between $0.10 (10¢) and $0.90 (90¢) at the moment of execution.

Prohibited Range: Opening positions on outcomes priced below $0.10 or above $0.90 is strictly forbidden.

System Enforcement: Orders placed outside this price range will be automatically rejected. Any attempt to bypass this rule will result in the trade being voided and potential account review.

Congratulations on completing your single-stage evaluation! Once upgraded to a Funded Account, you enter our institutional trading tier where you can begin monetizing your performance through regular payouts. 

Maximum Capital Allocation 

The maximum cumulative account value a single trader can manage across all their accounts is strictly limited to $50,000 / €50,000 / £50,000. This cap applies to the total sum of all your active accounts under one identity (e.g., you can hold five 10,000 accounts or one 50,000 account in your chosen currency). 

Payout Milestones & Performance Caps 

To ensure stable liquidity management, withdrawals are structured around a scaling schedule based on your funding history and payout cycles. 

Understanding the Withdrawal Mechanism 

The Payout Windows 

• Initial Window: You are eligible to request your first payout exactly 10 days after your Funded Account is created. 

• Subsequent Windows: After your first successful withdrawal, you can request new payouts every 10 days from the date of your last approved withdrawal. Please note that at the time of any payout request, all active trading positions must be fully closed. Payouts are calculated exclusively from your settled account balance. 

Maximum Profit Share Cap Explained 

Your cycle earnings are subject to a maximum eligibility cap based on your initial account size to manage tail-risk. Any profits generated above these percentages will be disqualified from the payout calculations: 

• First Withdrawal Example: On a 10,000 funded account, the eligible profit cap is 35% (3,500). You will receive your 70% profit split on this amount, netting you up to 2,450. 

• Second Withdrawal Example: The eligible profit cap expands to 45% (4,500). At a 70% profit split, you can withdraw up to 3,150. 

• Third & Future Withdrawals Example: The eligible profit cap permanently locks at 50% (5,000). Furthermore, your profit split permanently upgrades to 80%, netting you up to 4,000 per cycle. 

Verification & Compliance Protocols 

Before any funded reward is released to your banking or cryptocurrency destination, you must complete the standard institutional onboarding: 

• KYC (Know Your Customer): You must complete full identity verification inside your Lux Trading Firm Portal under the Rewards/Verification tab. 

• Payment Details: Ensure your correct bank or cryptocurrency destination details are securely entered and updated in your portal profile. 

Q: Are Prediction Markets the same as sports betting?
A: No. While you are forecasting real-world outcomes, you are not placing traditional fixed-odds bets. Instead, you are buying and selling YES/NO contracts whose prices fluctuate in real time between 1 and 99 cents based on market supply and demand, exactly like shares on a stock exchange. You can buy or sell your positions at any point before the market closes.

Q: Why does the platform cap Big Topic allocations and trade wins?
A: These boundaries (1% max exposure per Big Topic and max earn capped at 2x trade risk / up to 2%) are enforced to eliminate reckless gambling and “all-in” behavior. Our goal is to find traders who utilize structured, thoughtful hedging and risk allocation, which is vital for long-term institutional capital growth. Highly volatile or extremely high-risk “lottery” positions are not permitted.

Q: How do targets process if I have multiple open contracts?
A: Evaluation milestones are processed sequentially based on the order of market resolution (which event finishes first) and results in fully closed positions. Your profit target is calculated strictly from your realized account balance; floating or unrealized profits from other open contracts will not count toward this milestone. If your realized balance successfully reaches the +10% target, your account instantly progresses to verification—there is no need to wait for your longer-term open contracts to close. Conversely, if at any point your account equity drops by 4% or more from the initial balance (calculated in real-time based on open positions), the account is terminated immediately.

Q: How often can I request a payout on a Funded Account?
A: You can request your first payout exactly 10 days after your Funded Account is created. After that, you are eligible to request new payouts every 10 days from the date of your last approved withdrawal. Please note that all active trading positions must be fully closed at the time of the payout request, as withdrawals are processed exclusively from your settled account balance. There is no minimum number of trades required to request a payout.

Q: What happens to the profits that exceed the monthly/cycle cap?
A: The cap specifies the maximum eligible profit that can be calculated for a cash withdrawal during that specific 10-day cycle (35% for the 1st payout, 45% for the 2nd, and 50% for subsequent payouts). Any earnings generated above these specific thresholds within a payout window are disqualified and will be permanently removed from the balance during the payout processing. Your account remains active and in good standing as long as you do not breach the 4% equity drawdown rule.